Ipsos: Clinton Overtakes Obama Nationally On Eve of Indiana And North Carolina Primaries

In a new national poll, Hillary pulled ahead of Obama, 47% to 40%, in polling conducted over the past five days.  This is a ten point swing from Ipsos' April 23-27 poll. In a result guaranteed to make EVERYONE happy, the poll also shows both Democratic candidates beating McCain ;-)


Clinton (47%) Overtakes Obama (40%) Nationally On Eve of Indiana And North Carolina Primaries

Poll Shows Clinton Campaign Picking Up Steam With Democrats Nationally

May 5, 2008

Washington, DC - The latest Ipsos poll conducted over the weekend shows that on the eve of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton has taken over the lead in popular support from Democrats nationally. Among Democratic supporters across the country, 47% say that if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus was being held in their state today, they would choose Clinton, while 40% would vote for Barack Obama.

These results are in contrast to a poll conducted by Ipsos from April 23rd to April 27th and released last week which showed that Obama had a forty-six percent to forty-three percent lead over Clinton on this same question. Democratic support for Clinton remains highest from women (51%), who have a high-school education or less (58%), and very low income respondents (57% among those with an annual household income of $25,000 or less).

Americans were also asked for whom they would vote in a Presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate John McCain, and between Barack Obama and McCain. The good news for Democrats is that in either case the Democratic contender would have a slight edge on McCain. In a Presidential contest between Clinton and McCain, Clinton would garner 47% of the popular vote, with McCain picking up 42% of the vote. Should Barack Obama go up against McCain in November, 46% of Americans say they would vote for Obama compared to 42% who would vote for McCain.

link to press release

pdf, with questions and demographics

Well, we'll see how the results turn out tomorrow night.



Display:


Go Obama (none / 0)


    I think we'll see a split verdict. I think Obama supporters expecting a win in IN are dreaming.

   I think Hillary supporters expecting a NC win are simply wrong.

   We got a split verdict tomorrow and the next set of races to come.


by southernman on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:30:17 PM EST

Re: Go Obama (2.00 / 1)

After New Hampshire, I'm inclined to say that most anything is possible...

Who knows - it's up to the people now.


by Falsehood on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:02:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

GO HILLARY!!!! (none / 0)

This really is great news Camp!  Maybe the late-breaking undecideds are voting for our gal, just as they have in all those other primaries :)


Donate to Hillary Now!
by alegre on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:11:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GO HILLARY!!!! (none / 0)

Now Alegre, the late deciders didn't break you way in ALL of the other primaries, though I'll grant it's happened recently... :D

The one thing that I'm happy about is that there's a clear choice for Indiana, where all the gax tax stuff has occurred. Each candidate has made a clear case - we'll see what the voters think.


by Falsehood on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:11:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Very good! (2.00 / 3)

I'm sure this will be talked about all day tomorrow and will give Clinton voters even more confidence. Good work, Hillary!


by 4justice on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:34:02 PM EST

ap (none / 0)

gallup and rasmussen have him ahead. conflicting polls.


by mecarr on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:35:25 PM EST

nope (2.00 / 2)

gallop has her ahead.


For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!
by TeresaInPa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:36:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nope (2.00 / 1)

Not the tracking poll.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107014/Gallup -Daily-Democrats-Tied-Record-12th-Day.as px

All of these polls are getting ridiculous.  


by rfahey22 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:39:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nope (none / 0)


Weekend tracking polling tends to get unreliable.

In 2004-2005 Gallup used to try to set regulars poll on weekends, where they got higher Bush approval numbers than on weekdays.


by killjoy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:24:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ap (none / 0)

There is a difference between daily tracking and a poll over a length of time.


-----------

Blog: http://fitnessnerd.blogspot.com/

by FitnessNerd on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:40:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ap (none / 0)

Yes, the daily tracking poll, I believe, actually has a lower margin of error. (Some in a previous thread provided this info, so I'm relying on that claim)


by DPW on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:43:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gallup Makes Everyone Happy too (2.00 / 4)

On the same day, Gallup announces Hillary leads Obama nationally in the USA Today Gallup Poll while simultaneously announcing Obama leads Hillary on Gallups Daily Tracking Poll.

For Gallup, the customer is always right.


If you had everything, where would you put it?
by wasanyonehurt on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:36:04 PM EST

Re: Gallup Makes Everyone Happy too (none / 0)

Indeed.


by rfahey22 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:40:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup Makes Everyone Happy too (none / 0)

LOL!!


by RDemocrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:49:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup Makes Everyone Happy too (2.00 / 1)

that's the beauty of tracking polls - in order for you to eliminate between-sample error, you stick with the same group. this means that the bias in your original sample stays with you throughout the process. i dunno about you, but if i got asked the same damn question every day for months, i'd start making stuff up just to stay sane.


by campskunk on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:55:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup Makes Everyone Happy too (none / 0)

Huh? They don't ask the same exact people over and over again in daily tracking polls. Is that what you're saying? Because it ain't so.


by DPW on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:00:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup Makes Everyone Happy too (none / 0)

There's been times it's been reversed - Clinton ahead in the tracking poll, Obama ahead in the "Gallup" poll - both released on the same day.  Pollsters are giving me a headache!


by alamedadem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:56:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Too bad the race isn't national (2.00 / 1)

And it's just one poll.

She's finished.

We are stuck with a bum candidate in Obama.

Edwards should have stayed in.


by reggie44pride on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:55:26 PM EST

National polls all over the place (2.00 / 1)

The national polls are all over the place. A lot of it depends on the individual polls definition of a likely voter, and some of it could be attributed to margin of error.


The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman
by pollbuster on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:02:50 AM EST

5-day poll? (none / 0)

That might explain the discrepancy. Obama was clearly in worse shape early in the week when the news was all Wright all the time than he was over the weekend. The tracking polls have confirmed Obama's recovery since the middle of the week.


by elrod on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:09:44 AM EST


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