Harold Ickes puts together the evidence of the sea change we're seeing in the polls, and presents it to the superdelegates for their consideration as they watch the polls in North Carolina and Indiana (and the national polls) swing Hillary's way. Not since New Hampshire have we seen so much late movement in voters' preferences. Don't expect superdelegates to start jumping this week, but after next Tuesday...
The evidence for the Electoral College implications are obvious. Superdelegates want to win in Novemer; their loyalty to the party is first and foremost in their minds (or should be). No candidate is a good candidate if s/he puts us at a disadvantage in November. Losing candidates don't get the chance to use the office they tried for to improve the lives of the American people, and the presidency is the most powerful office. We have seen what happens when it's in the wrong hands.
See, I want our party to win in November. It's been a long damn time. Because of my job, I take vacations in the off-season so I can cover for people with families for the regular holiday times (summer and the holidays). I end up in weird places at weird times. In November 1992, I was up in Vermont ski country, after the leaves and before the snow, and practically had the whole place to myself. As the results rolled in and they called state after state, and finally the election, we watched in amazement. We built a big fire and stayed up all night and danced around it and laughed like crazy people. The twelve years of Reagan-Bush One were finally over. We had survived.
I want to feel like that again.
Date: Thursday, May 1, 2008, 1:00 PMTo: Automatic Delegates
From: Harold Ickes
Date: May 1, 2008
RE: HRC Strongest v. McCainA spate of new public polls out this week confirms what we have been arguing for some time: Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate to beat John McCain in November.
The data shows that Clinton not only outperforms Obama in head-to-head matchups, but is also stronger in the all important subcategories that serve as bellwethers for a candidate's overall strength.
In addition, new data out today in three swing states vital to Democratic prospects in November show Clinton beating McCain.
HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH MCCAIN: In a hypothetical general election match-up with McCain, Clinton wins handily (50-41) while Obama is virtually tied with McCain (46-44), according to the AP-Ipsos poll released Monday. A new poll from CBS/NYT show Clinton beating McCain by five points (48-43), while Obama ties McCain (45-45). The new Fox poll has Clinton beating McCain by one point (45-44), while Obama trails McCain by three points (43-46). And in Gallup's daily tracking poll, Clinton leads McCain by one point (46-45) while Obama trails McCain by two points (44-46).SWING STATES: New Quinnipiac polls out today show Clinton dramatically outperforms Obama in the critical swing states of Ohio in Florida . In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain by ten points (48-38), while Obama loses to him by one point (43-44). In Florida, Clinton beats McCain by 8 (49-41), while Obama loses
to him by one point (42-43). Hillary also tops McCain by 14 points in Pennsylvania (51-37), while Obama's lead over McCain is in single digits.CLINTON BEATS MCCAIN AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS; OBAMA TIES HIM: The new AP poll has Clinton leading McCain among independents (50-34) while Obama is tied with him (42-42). The NBC/WSJ poll notes that Obama's negative ratings among independents are they highest they have ever been.
CLINTON IS THE CANDIDATE VOTERS TRUST WITH THE ECONOMY: The economy is the top issue among voters and is likely to remain so through November. In the CBS/NYT poll, Hillary beat both Obama and McCain as the candidate who is talking about the economy most by a margin of 25% to Obama's 13% and McCain's 7%.
OBAMA UNFAVORABLES RISING QUICKLY: In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama's unfavorables increased by ten points in the last month (24 to 34%) while his favorables decreased by four points. In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama's unfavorables among independents rose to 31%. The Fox poll shows that in the last two months, Obama's unfavorables have increased by nine points (33 to 42%) while his
favorables decreased by seven points (54 to 47%). In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Obama's negative ratings increased by five points in the last month (32 to 37%) while his positive ratings decreased by three points in the last month (49 to 46%).CLINTON STRONGEST AMONG SWING VOTING BLOCS: The new AP-Ipsos poll shows Clinton leading McCain among seniors (51-39) but has McCain BEATING Obama (49-38). She runs stronger against McCain with those under 30 than Obama does, pulling two-thirds of the young vote while Obama gets 55% against McCain. And she wins the Catholic vote against McCain (58-35) while McCain beats Obama (46-43).
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