Harold Ickes to Superdelegates: Here is the Evidence

Harold Ickes puts together the evidence of the sea change we're seeing in the polls, and presents it to the superdelegates for their consideration as they watch the polls in North Carolina and Indiana (and the national polls) swing Hillary's way. Not since New Hampshire have we seen so much late movement in voters' preferences. Don't expect superdelegates to start jumping this week, but after next Tuesday...

The evidence for the Electoral College implications are obvious. Superdelegates want to win in Novemer; their loyalty to the party is first and foremost in their minds (or should be). No candidate is a good candidate if s/he puts us at a disadvantage in November. Losing candidates don't get the chance to use the office they tried for to improve the lives of the American people, and the presidency is the most powerful office. We have seen what happens when it's in the wrong hands.

See, I want our party to win in November. It's been a long damn time. Because of my job, I take vacations in the off-season so I can cover for people with families for the regular holiday times (summer and the holidays). I end up in weird places at weird times. In November 1992, I was up in Vermont ski country, after the leaves and before the snow, and practically had the whole place to myself. As the results rolled in and they called state after state, and finally the election, we watched in amazement. We built a big fire and stayed up all night and danced around it and laughed like crazy people. The twelve years of Reagan-Bush One were finally over. We had survived.

I want to feel like that again.

Date: Thursday, May 1, 2008, 1:00 PM

To: Automatic Delegates

From: Harold Ickes
Date: May 1, 2008
RE: HRC Strongest v. McCain

A spate of new public polls out this week confirms what we have been arguing for some time: Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate to beat John McCain in November.

The data shows that Clinton not only outperforms Obama in head-to-head matchups, but is also stronger in the all important subcategories that serve as bellwethers for a candidate's overall strength.

In addition, new data out today in three swing states vital to Democratic prospects in November show Clinton beating McCain.



HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH MCCAIN: In a hypothetical general election match-up with McCain, Clinton wins handily (50-41) while Obama is virtually tied with McCain (46-44), according to the AP-Ipsos poll released Monday.  A new poll from CBS/NYT show Clinton beating McCain by five points (48-43), while Obama ties McCain (45-45). The new Fox poll has Clinton beating McCain by one point (45-44), while Obama trails McCain by three points (43-46). And in Gallup's daily tracking poll, Clinton leads McCain by one point (46-45) while Obama trails McCain by two points (44-46).

SWING STATES: New Quinnipiac polls out today show Clinton dramatically outperforms Obama in the critical swing states of Ohio in Florida . In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain by ten points (48-38), while Obama loses to him by one point (43-44). In Florida, Clinton beats McCain by 8 (49-41), while Obama loses
to him by one point (42-43). Hillary also tops McCain by 14 points in Pennsylvania (51-37), while Obama's lead over McCain is in single digits.

CLINTON BEATS MCCAIN AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS; OBAMA TIES HIM: The new AP poll has Clinton leading McCain among independents (50-34) while Obama is tied with him (42-42).  The NBC/WSJ poll notes that Obama's negative ratings among independents are they highest they have ever been.

CLINTON IS THE CANDIDATE VOTERS TRUST WITH THE ECONOMY: The economy is the top issue among voters and is likely to remain so through November. In the CBS/NYT poll, Hillary beat both Obama and McCain as the candidate who is talking about the economy most by a margin of 25% to Obama's 13% and McCain's 7%.

OBAMA UNFAVORABLES RISING QUICKLY: In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama's unfavorables increased by ten points in the last month (24 to 34%) while his favorables decreased by four points. In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama's unfavorables among independents rose to 31%. The Fox poll shows that in the last two months, Obama's unfavorables have increased by nine points (33 to 42%) while his
favorables decreased by seven points (54 to 47%). In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Obama's negative ratings increased by five points in the last month (32 to 37%) while his positive ratings decreased by three points in the last month (49 to 46%).

CLINTON STRONGEST AMONG SWING VOTING BLOCS: The new AP-Ipsos poll shows Clinton leading McCain among seniors (51-39) but has McCain BEATING Obama (49-38).  She runs stronger against McCain with those under 30 than Obama does, pulling two-thirds of the young vote while Obama gets 55% against McCain. And she wins the Catholic vote against McCain (58-35) while McCain beats Obama (46-43).




Display:


Re: Harold Ickes to Superdelegates: (2.00 / 17)

Wowee Zowee! Love it! Thanks, camper!


by Nobama on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:03:30 PM EST

funny (none / 0)

your sad comment here, devoid of any thought other than a congratulatory high five, pretty much sums up the first sixty or seventy posts here.

wowee zowee indeed


by ameridad on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:22:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Anderson Cooper ran a solid hour (none / 0)

hit piece on Clinton - with soft focus emphasis on Obama.
Shots of his looking cool and friendly.  Shots of Clinton looking bug-eyed.
Every meat puppet hysterically screaming that Clinton should get out now.  That her staying in is destroying the party.
AOL Time Warner and CNN are outdoing themselves in propagandizing.
by internetstar on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:00:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sad to say.... (2.00 / 7)

but I believe that the hate for the Clintons by many insiders is stronger than a win for the Democratic party.


by soyousay on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:03:43 PM EST

Ain't that the truth (2.00 / 12)

in a nutshell


I didn't believe in god before the primaries and I still don't.
by NewHampster on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:10:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She has high unfavorability ratings for a reason. (1.50 / 4)

She can play the victim card all she likes, but this is the bed she made for herself.


by dystopianfuturetoday on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:21:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She does (2.00 / 21)

And the reason is because the RWC had it out for her, spent millions of dollars trying to take her down, and although they failed, their efforts are being revived by certain Democrats with agendas of their own and persons who were too young to really understand what was going on in the 90s.

She's really a good person.  She has friends that go way back and like her a lot.  She has always meant the best for average folks and poor folks, and she has worked tirelessly for them.


by Trickster on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:32:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Like always... (2.00 / 10)

Trickster hits the nail on the head.

People say that Hillary has high negatives. Ask them why, and they very often can not give you a specific answer.

There are indeed a lot of high ranking Dems who have their own agendas and do not relish another Clinton administration. Richardson comes to mind, and maybe Pelosi, but I think that many people are starting to wake up to the fact that it would be a hell of a lot better to live under Clinton than McCain.

Bottom line is that she is a terrific person and would do a lot of good for this country. She will make a wonderful president.


by MediaFreeze on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:40:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

For looks like hard times she seems right (2.00 / 3)

Hillary seems the right leader for a nation ready to go to work to get us out of hard times. Okay, I'll say it: she seems tougher than the 'guy' candidate.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Thu May 01, 2008 at 06:26:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Like always... (2.00 / 1)

That's because a lot of Clinton hating is irrational.


by handsomegent on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:15:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hmmm...no specific answer on negatives? (none / 0)

I suppose it is a truism that for many right-wingers, Hillary's major negatives are her last name and the (D) behind her name--and nothing more specific than that.

Otherwise, it's pretty well documented that one of her highest negatives as a senator was her vote on Iraq and her general lack of counter-balance to Bush's pro-war aggressive posture. The point can be argued whether she took the correct action but those were significant negatives.

And I need not mention the campaign events of the the past few months which have incurred a fair amount of rancor.

So I don't understand the suggestion that "they very often can not give you a specific answer."


by sawgrass727 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:52:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She does (none / 0)

I'm old enough to remember the 90s and was only a few months shy of being able to vote for Bill Clinton in '96. And I certainly hold no love for the Clintons after the past 7 years of seeing them operate.


by Yalin on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:25:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes (none / 0)

Part of the reason is constant attack by the right wing - but the right wing, although they clearly took advantage of it, had nothing to do with who Bill decided to sleep with; who HIllary went to for investment advice; which Bosnian air strip they ducked sniper fire at; which international fugitives you would pardon; or accepting a Senate seat in a state you never lived in; or voting for a war then acting surprised when it goes to hell,  etc etc

To reduce her high unfavorables to simply the right wing drum beat is insulting to the millions of typical Americans who have problems with her for other, rational reasons.


by highgrade on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:19:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She does (none / 0)

If the RWC is so bad, she and her cronies shouldn't be cozying up them now.

Scaife. O'Reilly. Drudge. Newsmax. Thanks to Sid Blumenthal, you can just make stuff up, "Libtardsarestupid.com" for example, post a story about Obama's cootie pants from the 3rd grade, and you'll get a great traffic bump when the daily email goes out.

But enjoy! Remember, there's a final act of Faust that you'll want to stay in your seats for. It's illustrative.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 02, 2008 at 03:02:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Barry the Constant Victim (2.00 / 9)

The victim card? Oh, that's rich.

Who cries racism when voters don't vote for him? Who whines about the media when he gets a tough question at the debates? Who blames mean old Hillary for not dropping out and giving him an easy path to the nomination?

One of most offensive things about Barack Obama is his constant whining and blaming when things don't go his way.


by cc on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barry the Constant Victim (1.60 / 5)

Hillary Clinton literally complained about unfair treatment in the middle of a debate, on national television.


"We have said since Iowa that this is a race for delegates."
-Howard Wolfson
by belicheat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama will be your President soon enough. (none / 0)

Show some respect.


by dystopianfuturetoday on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:25:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

O.M.G. (2.00 / 8)

That's an amazingly tin-eared comment.  Yeesh.

I'm a democrat and a Democrat.  I don't believe in "showing respect" unless it's earned, and winning an election doesn't earn it in my book.  Hell, the gropinator got himself elected.  Chimpy actually won in 2004, but I don't respect either of them.

It's just this kind of comment coming from Obama fans that annoys me.


by Montague on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:30:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not if I can help it. (2.00 / 2)

I think it's hilarious that you want a dystopian future today enough to name yourself for it and you support Obama.


by PlainWords on Thu May 01, 2008 at 06:08:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Happy to lighten your dull existence. (none / 0)


by dystopianfuturetoday on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama will be your President soon enough. (none / 0)

Earn it.


by Sandeep on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:22:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obviously. (none / 0)


by dystopianfuturetoday on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:06:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obviously. (none / 0)


by dystopianfuturetoday on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:07:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama will be your President soon enough. (none / 0)

Thanks be to God.
This needs to be over yeasterday.
by barnowl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:49:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barry the Constant Victim (2.00 / 2)

Oh crap.  

The victim card has been used continually throughout this race... and the Clinton camp is certainly not immune to that.


"If you ever post anything on that website again, I will shove a motherboard so far up your a$$...!" C.J Cregg
by JenKinFLA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 06:23:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She has high unfavorability ratings for a reas (2.00 / 1)

This is the bed the right wing and the MSM made for her; she's been trying to get out of it for nearly 2 decades, with no help from Dems who propagate the spin as if it were true. From the tone of things in much of Demland these days, I guess many Dems have actually come to believe it IS true. I find that very sad.


by Swedie on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:09:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She has high unfavorability ratings for a reas (none / 0)

SHE'S the one with the campaign using the very players in the Right Wing Conspiracy to her benefit! She's frollicking in their fields! Dancing in their daisies! You can't complain about the evil doings of the Vast Right Wing "Clinton Death List Forwarders" if they're providing oppo research for you.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 02, 2008 at 03:04:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She has high unfavorability ratings for a reas (2.00 / 2)

The reason for her unfavorability ratings is misogynism and the Republican sound machine and way too many Obama supporters jumped right into the bullshit.


by Thaddeus on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:39:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Uhhh, no (none / 0)

It's the lies, the backstabbing and the dirty tricks.


by barnowl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dirty tricks, Lies. what? (none / 0)


Good grief!  Do you really think this campaign has been characterized by dirty tricks?  This has been a remarkably gentle campaign.  What "dirty tricks" has Clinton engaged in?  Backstabbing?  HOw?  Name one instance.  Lies?  About what?  

The damage done to Obama (Wright Rezko, etc.) was not generated by the Clinton campaign.  Obama has accused her, in a blanket way, of being willing to say anything to get elected.  And his surrogates have sometimes been brutal in their personal attacks (ex. Jesse Jackson, Jr.).  What has the Clionton campaign done that is terribly nasty or constittues a dirty trick?

Just repeating this complaint is not very convincing, and I think it has started to get some Dems to wonder if Obama and his supporters just aren't ready for the normal conflicts of a campaign.  If you think the primary has been tough, you're in for a shocking general election if Obama is the nominee.  


by Thaddeus on Sat May 03, 2008 at 02:51:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

sure... (2.00 / 1)

hillary has traded in a narrow range including highs among her negatives in the 50s since she stepped into the ring:

USA Today/Gallup Poll. March 14-16, 2008. N=1,025 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.          

"Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. How about Hillary Clinton?"

Date    |    Favor    Unfav    Unsure
4/13-15/07     45      52      4        
3/5-7/01       44       53       3          
8/4-5/00       45       50       5          

if you had heard of obama in 2000/2001 -- or want to blame him -- then you might have a point...


"vision for change comes first and foremost...from me." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:48:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

you miss my point (none / 0)

The misogynism and Republican sound machine came first, of course.

Many Obama suppoters, many of themn too young to be that aware of Hillary in 1992-96 have bought into the Hillary-bashing bullshit.  I think that a significant number of older people have shifted their position on Hillary in the past year in a positive direction, as they have gotten to know her in the course of the campaign, as her vote totals indicate.  Obama supporters have moved from less knowledge of Hillary to an unfavorable opinion because of the inevitably partisan nature of the campaign.    


by Thaddeus on Sat May 03, 2008 at 02:45:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Hate comes compliments of Kos (none / 0)

who sold out his blog for profit.
And suckers don't realize all the BS they've been knocking out relentlessly against Clinton is just $$$ for Kos.
by internetstar on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:02:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Hate comes compliments of Kos (none / 0)

That's BS but whatever, I'd rather be aligned with Kos than aligned with Newsmax. Just sayin' if you gotta pick a horse...


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 02, 2008 at 03:05:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

on the blogs, maybe. (2.00 / 13)

there are a lot of people here on the blogs who would rather lose with obama than win with hillary. the superdelegates are more pragmatic, hopefully. they're politicians, after all ;-)


by campskunk on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:24:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (2.00 / 4)

Obama can win. Either democrat can win. You people ought to be ashamed, calling yourselves democrats and "people powered democracy." Give me a break.


by grasshopper on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:59:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (2.00 / 10)

It's 2008.  The red/blue map is firmly ensconced in everyone's mind.

You can't start a campaign by forfeiting Florida and Ohio, putting Pennsylvania at serious risk, and pretending you're going to offset those enormous sacrifices by winning 9 electoral votes in Colorado.  It just doesn't work that way.


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:06:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (2.00 / 3)

enough with Cartography by Crayola...

We need to compete in every state.  We need to run in every state.  This would help the down-ticket Democrats and start turning the "red" states "blue" or at least "purple".


"If you ever post anything on that website again, I will shove a motherboard so far up your a$$...!" C.J Cregg
by JenKinFLA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 06:25:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (none / 0)

No offense, but that is very naive.

We're not going to win an election by sending the nominee to Fargo and Oklahoma City in hopes of planting the seeds to win those states 50 years from now.  

Treating all the states in this electoral strategy equally is as foolish as pretending that every piece on a chessboard is exactly the same.    


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:04:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (2.00 / 1)

And you're pretending the chessboard hasn't changed! Which is why the chessboard is a horrible analogy.

I like comparing it to a national election, in which 4 to 8 years of events and national trends creates an ever-changing movement of ideas, goals and concerns, which are divvied up by two major parties along idealogical lines, even though what makes "Baseball steroid use" partisan I'll never understand.

I find using that as a metaphore is helpful.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 02, 2008 at 03:08:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (none / 0)

I never said the chessboard hasn't changed.  The weight of the pieces has not though.  PA is still worth 21, Florida is 27, Ohio is 20.  

Colorado is 9, Virginia is 13, Nevada is 5, New Mexico is 5, Iowa is 7, North Dakota is 3, and Montana is 3.  

So...

Ohio = Nevada + New Mexico + Iowa + North Dakota

Florida > Colorado + Virginia + Montana

And if you lose Pennsylvania, you lose!

The pieces may have moved slightly since 2004, but the rules of the game are the same.


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 06:06:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (none / 0)

A sweating pig scab would get Ohio's votes over a Republican. There's not a state in the union that has been more raped over the last 8 years.

If they go for McCain anyway, God help 'em. Cuz they sure ain't helping themselves.

And again, that's why the board has changed. You are looking at polls now and extrapolating results based upon bad facts. It won't be 2 against 1 come election day, unless Hillary goes for some triangulated third option, which seems even too low for her campaign.

I've been playing politics for a while, and if May polls mattered, (as opposed to Maypoles, which are very important to Ren Faire attendees), we'd be finishing up the first term of President Kerry, who beat the legitimately elected without any Supreme Court involvement George W. Bush.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 02, 2008 at 01:14:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (none / 0)

Ohio voted against its economic interest in 2000 and 2004 and nothing will prevent it from doing the same in 2008.  Remember, Ohio is filled with those small-towns that are SUPER MEAN! and wouldn't vote for someone towards whom they have "antipathy."  

There's a reason Obama left Ohio off of its camapaing memo.  Ohio is a big embarrassment to Obama's electoral chances.  


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 05:00:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (none / 0)

And then maybe the country should ignore them as well? And somehow you believe these people will prefer Hillary?


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Sat May 03, 2008 at 03:47:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (none / 0)

don't forget - CO splits it's electoral votes! so he can win the state but not get all the ev's. or did that bill fail?


by swissffun on Thu May 01, 2008 at 06:50:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (none / 0)

No, it does not.  It is up to vote in November and is being pushed by a California group.  

However, even if it does pass, it will not make it, as it is unconstitutional as "such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct."  Thus, only the Legislature has the authority to perform certain functions as a matter of national law.


Capitalization is the difference between "I had to help my uncle Jack off a horse..." and "I had to help my uncle jack off a horse..."
by igottheblues on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:58:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: on the blogs, maybe. (none / 0)

thanks. they voted on it in 2004 but i lost track of how that turned out.


by swissffun on Fri May 02, 2008 at 01:01:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

it's all in your mind... (2.00 / 1)

you seem to be the only one who thinks any democrat is forfeiting ohio.  gov. strickland has already pledged to put ohio in the democratic column, and there are structural reasons why this will happen, regardless.  you ignore that because you need for barack to lose ohio to have a point.

which you don't.

no democrat can win florida.  not one...


"vision for change comes first and foremost...from me." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:50:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama Can't Win in FL (2.00 / 7)

Nor in OH, probably not in PA, nowhere in the South, including TX, if you remember the popular vote.

These states possess the crucial ECVs necessary to take the WH.  Obama doesn't deliver them.

Just what, exactly, does Obama have to offer the Democratic party as a "winner"?  A warm fuzzy feeling?


by Limelite on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:12:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Can't Win in FL (2.00 / 1)

Repeat after me............

Match ups prior to having a one on one contest for the general are joke polls.

The polls will change overnight when we have a winner.

Either one will trounce McCain if the Primary is decided fairly.

If Clinton wins by superdelegate coup overturning the peoples vote then that changes the equation.

In that case she will loose a great deal of the AA vote and the young vote and the more educated vote. Plus she will not gain from the Obama 50 state mass voter registration that he is going to do if he is the nominee.

That tactic the 50 state 6 month drive is the secret to the election. Even if (and I disagree) he does not get r=the Regan Democrats, he will register millions of new voters.

The repugs are scared as hell of the new Dem voters already registered as they know that their own vote will be depressed.

It's a different way, and Clinton could not work this way as she has little grass roots support. I wonder why?


by telfish on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:45:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Can't Win in FL (2.00 / 3)

I agree....  I am a little tired of this whole fear of McCain meme...  

It's a long way until the general election...  and both Democrats have a good chance of trouncing McCain...  he is the incumbent party in a year when nothing, repeat nothing, economically is going well.  That does not bode well for him.

Beyond that, I simply cannot stand Ickes.  Yet another person that Hillary is succeeding despite not because of.


"If you ever post anything on that website again, I will shove a motherboard so far up your a$$...!" C.J Cregg
by JenKinFLA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 06:27:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Can't Win in FL (2.00 / 3)

If Clinton wins by superdelegate coup overturning the peoples vote then that changes the equation.

It wouldn't be a "coup". They would be doing what their contingency was set up to do in a situation like this, which at rock bottom is to make the final call about which candidate is most likely to win in November.

Obama supporters are keen on citing "the rules" when it comes to such things as seating FL and MI delegates, but when it comes to the "rules" regarding super delegates you aren't so keen-- at least not if it might adversely affect your candidate. Thoroughly understandable, but disingenuous.

The Democratic Party created the super delegate contingent for just such a case as we have now. If we don't like the way it turns out, we as a party have only ourselves to blame for inventing such a stupid system. It's a kind of "unintended consequences" thing. So change the "rules" already.

And before you jump all over me, no I don't like it one bit. I think the whole Dem primary system needs a serious overhaul, and I've thought that for many years.


by Swedie on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:25:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Politics As Usual (2.00 / 1)

when super delegates realize who's more electable -- not a "coup." Just ordinary Party selection process.

Representatives, whether at conventions, or in Congress are supposed to make informed choices.  In the first case for their Party, in the second for their country.  Often this goes against the popular consensus.

Clinton will lose no significant proportion of the AA vote. They have nothing against her; currently, they just have a lot "for" Obama.  They're solidly in the Democrats camp.

Obama on the other hand is bleeding, as I type, white voters.  He will not gain any white voters in FL, OH, PA, or TX.  In contrast, Clinton will at the head of a Clinton/Obama ticket, which will also keep all those AA voters you erroneously presume will defect.  Plus Hispanics and Catholics who are not enamored (won't vote) for Obama will vote for such a ticket.  Clinton as the nominee is far and away the stronger winning head of ticket.  Obama is far and away a larger liability than she is as head of ticket.

The Republicans are not afraid of any new Dem voters; they've known for a long time, as have we all, that the mood of the nation is no longer with them.  They have been aware that they're going to lose the WH, regardless of their nominee, and many seats in Congress since last year -- long before these johnny-come-lately Democrats were registered.  So have non-Republicans known this.

It was all worked out long before John Edwards dropped out of the race.


by Limelite on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:08:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

no democrat wins florida... (none / 0)

hillary may win dade, broward, palm beach and hillsborough -- her strongholds -- but she can't win where it counts.  i know, i know, polls out of her strongholds show her winning.  too bad it's not more than a third of the vote in florida.

there's lots of reasons to think that barack can do much better than hillary in the fall.  more contributions, more contributors, more states, more wins, more grassroots support, more experience at grassroots tactics, a plan that has actually been successful, etc etc etc.

your argument is based on a fatally flawed assumption, that democrats will only back a clinton, the a clinton is the only democrat people want in the white house and that those who voted for hillary will never support barack.  why you assume that we'll probably never know.  we just know that it's not a valid assumption...


"vision for change comes first and foremost...from me." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:54:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama CAN win (2.00 / 5)

He is polling even with McCain in Indiana, putting it into play.
He is tied in north carolina with McCain, putting it into play.
He is BEATING McCain in Pennsylvania, so I don't know where you're getting this "he probably wont win PA" from.

He is winning in Iowa, winning in Colorado, polling even in Nebraska, New Mexico, South Carolina.

Clinton meanwhile is losing badly in Wisconsin and Michigan, and north carolina. She is polling EVEN with mccain in WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

I see NO reason why BOTH candidates cannot win.

They both just do it differently.

So stop peddling this myth.


by beholderseye on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:28:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

And also, he is polling (statistically speaking) even with McCain in Ohio and Michigan, so more states are in play under Obama.


by beholderseye on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:29:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

That's what I said... Obama CAN win.


by grasshopper on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:35:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

not responding to you, just the general thread as a whole. Sorry.


by beholderseye on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:48:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (2.00 / 1)

Oh, wow, he's winning in Iowa - wheeeeeee!  And I say that as an Iowan.  Listen, Iowa is small potatoes in the EC.  Give it up.  We need Ohio, Penn and/or Florida badly.


by Montague on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:31:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (2.00 / 1)

Why go for a triple bank shot when you can give yourself a number of different ways to win? This theory of focusing all your resources on 2-3 states hasn't accomplished much in the last two presidential elections. We have to be competitive everywhere!


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:38:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

That's because we lost two of the three states needed both times!

Flip Florida, OMG, Gore wins in 2000.

Flip Ohio, wow, Kerry wins in 2004.

Now Hillary has a commanding lead in Ohio and a good chance of sealing the deal in Florida, unlike Kerry.  

Why would we not run with that and instead bank on Obama's hopeful promise of miracles in deep red states?  

When your strategy relies on a chain of winning Colorado AND Virginia AND New Mexico AND Iowa AND New Hampshire AND Nevada in addition to holding Pennsylvania AND Michigan, all McCain has to do is break one link in the chain, and he wins.  If there's a 50/50 chance in each state above, then the chance of winning all of them is

1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/256.  


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:13:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

EHHHH!! Wrong. Kerry states + CO, VA, NM, IA, and NV equals 291 electoral votes, so he actually only has to win 3 out of 5. You're trying to win in two red states too, just with zero margin for error. Thanks for playing, try again.


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:31:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

Buzz!

You gave Obama all the Kerry states like a big gift from heaven.

He's not strong in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.  To be fair, Hillary's not as strong in Michigan as Kerry was either.  Michigan is a mess this cycle!

Now, even if we give Obama all three disputed Kerry states, your "3 out of 5" comment is wrong because if he wins NM, IA, and NV, he's at 269.  Don't forget the renewed proposal to split Colorado's EV by proportion.  

So, it's

NH and PA and MI and a whole bunch of red states, and if one of them isn't Virginia then it's big trouble.    


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 06:15:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

The Primary
Is Not
The General
Election
and Hillary
is not
The Republican
in the fall
that would be
John McCain
who is about
as attractive a candidate
as dried up mouse sperm.

Do not make your decisions based on "electability" which Jon Stewart rightly
commented
last night
is about the same as
making your decisions on what to eat
based upon
how you think someone else's
tummy will
digest the food
instead of on the merits of
the food.

That is, it's stupid.
Don't be stupid please.
Thanks.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 02, 2008 at 01:18:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

The only evidence we have right now is exit polls from elections w. demographic breakdowns, general election polls, and a series of scandals whose effect and degree of damage can't be quantified.  

I am not basing any assessments on the flawed logic that "winning a state in the primary is the same as winning it in the GE."  


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 05:05:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

dumb, dumb, dumb... (none / 0)

gore going into florida with three weeks left was the dumbest thing any politician can do.  he'd have won the white house if he'd stayed in tennessee and fought.  thinking he could win florida at the last moment, and forfeiting tennessee in order to compete there, just can't be explained.

hillary has no chance of winning florida as long as crist is the governor.  crist will actually support mccain (whereas jeb didn't call out his peeps for his brother in 2000).  crist is a very popular governor with a very strong political machine...


"vision for change comes first and foremost...from me." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:04:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I see that the audacity of hope (none / 0)

has got you in its grip. Need I remind you that Gore WON in 2000?

Competitive everywhere?  Yes, nice idea, and it will be very useful for regaining reps in the Congress, but it will take a long, long while for it to make a significant difference in a presidential contest.  Until the electoral college has been abolished, we have to play the state-by-state game.  No other way to win.  If Hillary is a triple bank shot, then I don't even know what obscure, impossible, magical shot is required for Obama.


by Montague on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:52:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

Jesus--losing in Wisconsin?  Running neck and neck in the Pacific Northwest?  I knew Clinton had it hard outside the Rust Belt and the northeast, but I didn't know it had gotten that bad.  

I guess that's what you get when you campaign for the Democratic nomination by trying your damnedest to paint your rival as an out of touch elitist.


by leftneck on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:16:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (2.00 / 1)

Wisconsin was the closest state in the country in 2004 and one of the top three closest, right behind Florida, in 2000.  

Wisconsin has been teetering on the edge of evil for years now.  

Pacific Northwest, particularly Oregon, is always considered swing.  No surprises there.  


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:16:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

Only none of those states are troublesome for Obama. Funny...


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:33:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (2.00 / 1)

It's a trade-off.

I'm not worried about Washington or Oregon.  

If Wisconsin goes red, that's a fair trade off to me if it means winning Ohio and Florida.  Ohio and Florida singlehandedly insure you against a lot of potential damages.  


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 06:17:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (2.00 / 1)

Interesting states to focus on for the candidate presenting herself as the 'sure bet.'  Relying on them has turned out so well in the past!


by leftneck on Fri May 02, 2008 at 07:54:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

And they are both small and don't have many EC votes.  Wow.  Impressive that Obama is doing well in one of them.


by Montague on Fri May 02, 2008 at 11:56:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

Outside of Appalachia, Obama is the stronger candidate. He'll just need to consider that in his VP choice.


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:32:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

Ohio is in the Midwest.  While the Allegheny range is in part of Ohio, the bulk of the population lives squarely in onthe Midwest portion.

By what measure do you find California to be in Appalachia?  Ditto Texas, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Nevada....


by Montague on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:37:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

Map of Appalachia - technically a significant portion of Ohio is in Appalachia my good friend. As for your other litany of states, there's no legitimate suggestion (apart from an outlier poll here or there) that Obama will lose any of those other states. Keep trying though.


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:32:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

Even if that were true, which it isn't, the most damning part of the statement is the fact that Appalachia has over 70 electoral votes.  (PA, OH, WV, KY, TN, + parts of MD, VA, NC, GA).


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 05:09:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama CAN win (none / 0)

Yes, so her big advantage comes down to West Virginia and Kentucky. The rest of the states have enough population outside of Appalachia that he'll be way more than fine. Map of Appalachia


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:35:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

True. Here's one of my favorite (none / 0)

examples of how petty politicians (even supposedly "high class" ones) really are:

http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2 006/4/25/95325.shtml

"...at his own book party, it was Bill Clinton who stole the show. The New York Daily News reports that Kennedy gave "a moving speech" to the assembled gathering .... then Right on cue, Bill Clinton suddenly materialized at the other end of the room, drawing Kennedy's guests towards him, according to the News, 'like iron filings to a magnet.'"


by miker2008 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:53:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sad to say.... (2.00 / 3)

It's certainly true amongst obama partisans on blogs but I'm not sure that it holds good for guys who are professional politicos. If they give it to him and he blows it but the democrats substantially increase their margins in house and senate. Who will be the de facto leader of the party with enormous power. Obama outside of a very narrow constituency would be something of an unperson, remember Gore. It's much more complex than simplifications that abound here. If he has a bad week next week which would basically validate Ickes comments. I suspect there is going to be some log rolling going on.  


by ottovbvs on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:47:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sad to say.... (none / 0)

that'a a joke, right?  Because insiders are the only reason Clinton has a shot.  DNC members are the only delegate category in which Clinton has a lead.  Obama leads among pledged delegates and all elected superdelegate categories (governors, senators, representatives).  So this idea that insiders hate Clinton is absurd.


by hekebolos on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:24:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sad to say.... (none / 0)

"It's about the numbers, and the numbers are the numbers," said Chris Redfern, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party and an uncommitted superdelegate. "It's not about hand-wringing. And Senator Obama has the lead."


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:52:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Once again (none / 0)


   it's not who can beat McCain tomorrow, it's who can beat McCain in November.

  Find better evidence. Polls are worthless this far out.

  It's just as silly to hear Obama people claiming clinton can't win states like MN, IL and WI, and claiming his polling lead over Clinton and McCain in NJ is relevant...as it is to hear Clinton claiming she should be the nominee b/c 10 of the bigger states voted for her and she leads in polls now for a contest in November.

  Find better evidence.


by southernman on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:04:03 PM EST

Re: Once again (2.00 / 9)

so you're holding out for a crystal ball. well, good for you. the rest of us make do with available evidence, which shows hillary doing better against mccain than obama does. your contrarian premise that we should support the weaker candidate against mccain because polls aren't accurate is interesting, but i'm not willing to bet my future on it.


by campskunk on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:42:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (2.00 / 1)

Just like 3 weeks ago, this was just the opposite. The truth is we don't know who will do better. We have very recent polls indicating a current trend, but we also have a whole primary showing the weaknesses of Clinton's campaign management, we have Clinton's high negatives, and we have the plain fact that Obama simply is winning in all of the ways that the primary's are designed to be won. So, taking it all in at once (including even these recent polls) we have a very negligible argument for Clinton's viability.
John McCain isn't evil. He's just wrong about a lot of things. Vote Obama!
by proseandpromise on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:49:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (none / 0)

Oh no don't tell me they're running mean ads!


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:39:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm so afraid (none / 0)

Of the little short-armed guy!!!


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:53:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Put It This Way (2.00 / 5)

Clinton's puissance in FL, OH, PA, has been the steady trend since last year.

When it comes to delivering the Democratic vote in the big ECV states, Obama's ineffectualness has also been consistent since last year.

You waiting for a miracle turnaround in public opinion?


by Limelite on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:14:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Put It This Way (none / 0)

Ineffectualness! That word is pulchritudinaless! Completly uncromulent.

It's true though. Since last year, Obama has completely let everyone down if you pay only attention to places he has failed. In fact, if you took away all the states where he won, Clinton would be the nominee by now!

Why won't he step aside? For electibility's sake?


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 02, 2008 at 03:13:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (2.00 / 6)

It's not just the headline numbers but also the crosstabs.

As the "post-racial" candidate Obama's increasingly polarizing race continues to split the electorate into the AA vote versus the "everyone else" vote, simple demographics spell doom for November.  Overwhelming disapproval for Obama now inheres in Latinos, White Americans, Asian Americans, seniors, Catholics, and Jews.  As of Pennsylvania, Obama's support among the youth was slipping.  Now that the Obama fad is dying out, the youth will likely polarize among racial lines like the rest of the electorate.  Cross tabs from Indiana, North Carolina, and upcoming Kentucky only show the divide further growing.  This is sad.    

Coupled with these figures then, we also know that Obama brings us scandals far more sensational and resonating than Clinton's boring finance related stuff from the 1990's.  It's only April and Obama's radical ties are being used in ads in Mississippi, North Carolina, and Louisiana.  If they prove effective, supers who are elected officials will run from Obama like the plague.  The "cling to" clause from Bittergate is also with us forever, like Dukakis' tank moment.  


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:15:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (none / 0)

There are more scandals than the "boring" financial scandals of the 90's waiting for the Clintons.  Start out with the selling of the Rich pardon at the end of Bill's term, the fees he has been received from foreign companies in China and Columbia, and the still unknown make up of just who donated hundreds of millions to his library.  Do you really think the GOP is going to let that pass?  If you think HRC's negative are high now you ain't seen nothing yet.  


"You might well think that. I couldn't possibly comment"
by xenontab on Fri May 02, 2008 at 01:39:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

this is clearly your first race... (none / 0)

jews broke for hillary 53-47 in pennsylvania.  not exactly earth-shattering.

what is sad is your inexperience and your eagerness to extrapolate anyone voting for hillary as voting for mccain in the fall.  that's not only at irrational assumption, it is a flawed one.


"vision for change comes first and foremost...from me." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:01:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (none / 0)

Look I've never said he can't win IL. Would MN and WI give some concern, yes. Would PA and NJ give me huge concern, yes. There's also no way he's going ot carry any southern state. These sort of facile dismissals of a mounting body of evidence are very shortsighted. Since as you well know there is no better evidence, how could there be, it easy to make these sort of comments. There are however plausible scenarios and these should be disregarded at our peril. I personally think absent a very bad week next week he's going to be nominated but if McCain runs a good campaign he's going to roll over him.  


by ottovbvs on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:54:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (none / 0)


   There is no way Clinton will carry any Southern state either.

  Except perhaps FL, where they both have a shot.


by southernman on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:24:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (2.00 / 2)

SHe'll carry Arkansas for sure.... a bluish-purple state.

Obama?  It's not even in play.


by TxKat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:28:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (2.00 / 1)


  No she won't.

 The Democratic base there is no longer big enough to ensure that win w/out getting cross over GOP votes....which Clinton will not get.

  She'll lose Arkansas by 8-10 points. She won't win it.


by southernman on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:38:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (none / 0)

I think you haven't been to "Hope" lately.

Arkansas is definitely trending Clinton -- Obama.... not so much.


by TxKat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:47:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (none / 0)


   Clinton won't win it. I'm sorry! She won't.
by southernman on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:14:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Once again (none / 0)

Arkansas has major Clinton slants in all of their polls except one outlier, which happens to be the most recent.  Gore lost AR by 5% and Kerry by 9%.  Clinton outperforms them both in her home state by miles.  


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:26:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

no democrat wins florida... (none / 0)

as long as crist is governor...


"vision for change comes first and foremost...from me." -- Barack Obama
by bored now on Fri May 02, 2008 at 10:01:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Won't matter (none / 0)

There is no way the superdelegates will overturn the pledged delegate vote winner which would mean denying the first African-American the nomination unless Obama's campaign totally collapses.  So far I don't see a total collapse.  There is a dip in the polls as we saw when Wright first appeared but that most likely will change as the Wright controversy subsides.

The superdelegates are NOT going to risk losing the black vote for the general election and for possibly a generation.  That would be SUICIDE for the Democratic party for decades.  Plus without the African-American vote in the Fall, Hillary is going to LOSE the general election.  Every superdelegate knows that.

If Obama wins North Carolina and Oregon (even if it is single digits), he will be the nominee.


by puma on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:05:17 PM EST

the will of the pledged delegates? (2.00 / 10)

There is no way the SDs will ignore the will of the people more of whom will have voted for Hillary by the time this is over.
They also will not give the nomination to someone who is the weaker candidate.
For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!
by TeresaInPa on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:14:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the will of the pledged delegates? (none / 0)

Almost no SD who is not already supporting Clinton agrees that the popular votes of MI and Fl should count towards the pop vote totals of the candidates.  Without that she has very little chance of winning the pop vote count.  At any rate a pop vote victory for Clinton would have to be rather decisive in order to overcome the uncertainty in measurement associated with the estimates used for caucuses Obama won handidly.


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:29:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Evidence for your assertion? (2.00 / 6)

Almost no SD who is not already supporting Clinton agrees that the popular votes of MI and Fl should count towards the pop vote totals of the candidates.

Not only have I not seen this in print, I don't see how anyone could know that.


by Trickster on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:33:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Evidence for your assertion? (2.00 / 1)

The OP is insinuating that SD's WILL take FL/MI into account, care to question how she knows that?

The reason I assert this is simple.  I have heard almost no non-Hillary supporter making the argument that FL MI should count towards pop vote, have you?  I have heard plenty of neutral parties suggesting that the contests in the two states were bogus (esp. MI).  


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:38:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Evidence for your assertion? (n